Starmer Vows to Fight Reform 'With Everything We Have' as Polling Paints Bleak Picture for Labour
A damning new poll has projected that more than half of Keir Starmer's cabinet ministers could lose their seats in a general election, with 12 of them falling to Reform UK — as Nigel Farage's party surges to a projected 324 seats and a potential parliamentary majority.
The Polling Bombshell
The survey, conducted by More in Common and based on responses from over 15,000 people across Britain, paints a stark picture for Labour ahead of May's local elections. Among the cabinet ministers projected to lose their seats to Reform UK are Chancellor Rachel Reeves, Home Secretary Yvette Cooper, Defence Secretary John Healey, Culture Secretary Lisa Nandy, Education Secretary Bridget Phillipson, and former Climate Secretary Ed Miliband. Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner is also projected to fall to Reform UK, while Health Secretary Wes Streeting could lose to an independent candidate.
The poll projects Reform UK winning 324 seats — one short of an outright majority — compared to Labour on 101, the Conservatives on 81, and the Liberal Democrats on 62. A separate YouGov poll from 7 April placed Reform at 24%, five points ahead of the Conservatives, with Labour and the Greens tied at 16%.
Starmer's Response
Prime Minister Starmer has responded by instructing his cabinet to go on the offensive against Reform UK, framing the upcoming local elections as "the fight of our political lives." In a message to ministers, he described the political choice as being between a Labour government "renewing the country" and a Reform movement that "feeds on grievance, decline and division."
"Governments lose not when polls decline, but when they lose belief or nerve," Starmer told his cabinet, urging ministers to be "relentless" in addressing the cost of living and delivering "change people can feel." He has also accused Reform of wanting a "weaker state" and seeking to "inject bile into our communities."
Background: Labour's Declining Ratings
Starmer's net approval rating, which was marginally positive when he took office in July 2024, had plummeted to an average of –46% by November 2025 — with one poll suggesting he was the least popular prime minister since records began in 1977. Reform UK has consistently led in opinion polls since the 2024 general election, and the party's recent takeover of Kent County Council — where it declared an "illegal migration emergency" — has demonstrated its ability to win beyond traditional Red Wall areas.
Why It Matters
The May local elections in England, alongside parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales, will be the first major electoral test since Labour's 2024 general election victory. Farage has explicitly stated his goal to "humiliate" Starmer, believing a poor showing will make it "virtually impossible for him to hang on." With Labour facing a simultaneous challenge from the Greens in urban areas, the party is fighting what analysts are calling a "war on two fronts." Full BBC News report.
