Labour Faces Historic Polling Collapse as Reform UK Surges Ahead
Keir Starmer's Labour government is facing a dramatic and sustained collapse in public support less than two years after its landslide 2024 general election victory, with the latest polling placing the party in third place and Reform UK firmly in the lead.
Background
Labour won the July 2024 general election with a large parliamentary majority, but its vote share was relatively modest. Since taking office, the government has faced mounting criticism over the cost of living, energy bills, and a series of controversial decisions. The political landscape has shifted dramatically, with voters abandoning the traditional two-party system in favour of alternatives on both the right and left.
Key Developments
The latest PolitPro polling data, updated on 12 April 2026, places Reform UK in first place with 26.0% of voting intention — an 11.7-point increase since the 2024 election. Labour has slumped to just 17.8%, a staggering 15.9-point drop, placing it in third behind the Conservatives at 18.4%. The Green Party has surged to 16.9%, up 10.5 points, while the Liberal Democrats sit at 11.7%.
Keir Starmer's personal approval ratings have collapsed to a net score of between -44 and -48, a fall of over 60 points since the 2024 election — comparable to Boris Johnson's ratings when he resigned. A majority of Britons (55%) now believe Starmer should resign, with most expecting him to leave office before the next general election, due in 2029.
The decline has been attributed to public frustration over broken promises, persistently high energy bills, rising food prices, and controversial appointments. The Fire Brigades Union's general secretary publicly called for Starmer's resignation in February 2026, marking a significant break from a Labour-affiliated union.
Reform UK's Rise
Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, has consistently led the polls for over a year. Ahead of the May 2026 local elections, polling experts are projecting the party could win 2,260 council seats — a historic victory that would dwarf even Tony Blair's gains in 1995. Labour, by contrast, is predicted to lose almost 2,000 councillors in what could be its worst local election defeat on record.
The Green Party's surge has been particularly pronounced among younger voters, with 38% of that demographic intending to vote Green — a development that signals a generational shift in British politics.
Why It Matters
The fragmentation of UK politics has profound implications for governance. If current polling trends were replicated at a general election, Labour would lose its majority and its ability to govern. The May 2026 local elections are now seen as a critical test for Starmer's leadership, with poor results potentially triggering an internal challenge.
What's Next
The local elections on 7 May 2026 will be the first major electoral test of the government's unpopularity. Starmer has explicitly told his cabinet to target Reform UK's "divisive" narrative, framing the choice as between Labour "renewing the country" and Reform feeding on "grievance, decline and division." Whether that message resonates with a disillusioned electorate remains to be seen.
Source: PolitPro UK Polling Tracker, BBC News
