ESRI Report Warns AI Will Cost Irish Jobs — and Highly-Skilled Workers Are Most at Risk
A major new report from the Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), produced jointly with the Department of Finance, has warned that the adoption of artificial intelligence will lead to significant job losses in Ireland — and, contrary to widespread assumptions, it is highly-skilled and highly-educated workers who face the greatest exposure.
The report, published on 9 April, has been described as a "wake-up call" for the Irish government and business community to begin preparing for a fundamental shift in the labour market. It challenges the conventional wisdom that AI primarily threatens low-skilled, routine jobs, finding instead that many professional and knowledge-based roles are highly susceptible to automation through large language models and other AI tools.
Background
Ireland's economy is particularly exposed to AI disruption given its heavy concentration of multinational technology and financial services companies, many of which are at the forefront of AI adoption. The country has benefited enormously from its position as a hub for global tech firms, but this same concentration creates specific risks as those firms automate more of their operations. The ESRI report is the most comprehensive analysis to date of how this transformation is likely to play out in the Irish context.
Internationally, the picture is similarly sobering. The International Monetary Fund estimates that nearly 40 per cent of jobs globally are exposed to AI, with this figure rising to 60 per cent in advanced economies like Ireland. The World Economic Forum's Future of Jobs Report predicts that while AI will displace 92 million jobs globally by 2030, it will also create 170 million new ones — but the transition will be painful for many workers, particularly those in roles that are easily automated.
The ESRI report's key finding — that highly educated, higher-paid workers are among the most vulnerable — represents a significant departure from earlier assumptions about AI's impact. Previous waves of automation primarily affected low-skilled manual labour; this time, the disruption is moving up the skills ladder.
Key Developments
The ESRI analysis found that approximately seven per cent of current Irish jobs are at risk of being displaced by AI in the short to medium term. Clerical and administrative roles — including general and keyboard clerks, secretaries, bookkeepers, and customer service clerks — face the highest risk of displacement. ICT professionals, business and administration professionals, and roles involving document analysis, data processing, and structured decision-making are also highly exposed.
The report also highlighted that 60 per cent of companies surveyed indicated they may consider laying off employees who fail to adopt and utilise AI tools effectively, suggesting that the transition will require significant upskilling across the Irish workforce. The adoption of AI is projected to cause a moderate increase in income inequality, with average household disposable income expected to decline in the short term due to job displacement, even as some workers see wage gains.
The Department of Finance acknowledged the report's findings and indicated that it would inform upcoming policy discussions on workforce development, education, and social protection. Ministers are expected to outline a response to the report's recommendations in the coming weeks.
Why It Matters
The ESRI report is a significant moment in Ireland's reckoning with the economic consequences of AI. For decades, the conventional wisdom held that automation would primarily affect low-skilled workers, leaving knowledge workers relatively insulated. The finding that highly educated professionals in finance, law, administration, and technology are among the most exposed upends that assumption and demands a fundamental rethink of workforce policy. The potential strain on public finances — through decreased income tax revenue and increased welfare spending — adds a further dimension of urgency. Ireland's tax and welfare system is expected to absorb about half of the income losses for even the highest-income households, but the remainder will fall on individuals and families who may have little warning of what is coming.
Local Impact
For workers across the island of Ireland, the ESRI report's findings are a direct and personal concern. Northern Ireland's economy, with its significant public sector and growing technology sector, faces its own version of the AI transition challenge. Jobs in administration, customer service, and professional services — sectors that employ large numbers of people across Belfast and beyond — are among those identified as most at risk. The ESRI has called for urgent investment in reskilling and upskilling programmes, and experts have urged a proactive approach to redesigning roles to complement AI rather than waiting for displacement to occur. Fast-track, practical reskilling programmes and incentives for companies to retrain rather than lay off workers are among the recommendations gaining traction.
What's Next
The ESRI has called for urgent investment in reskilling and upskilling programmes, particularly for workers in sectors identified as high-risk. It has also recommended that the government develop a national AI transition strategy to ensure that the benefits of AI adoption are broadly shared and that displaced workers receive adequate support. Read the full ESRI report. Further coverage is available at RTÉ News.
