Reform UK Surges Ahead of Labour in Polls as Local Elections Loom
Nigel Farage's Reform UK has overtaken Labour in national polling and is projected to make historic gains in the upcoming English local elections, posing the most serious electoral challenge to Keir Starmer's government since Labour's 2024 landslide victory.
New polling data places Reform UK at approximately 26% nationally -- ahead of Labour, the Conservatives, and the Greens, all of whom are polling in the high teens. Expert pollster John Curtice has noted that Reform is now consistently ahead of Labour in UK-wide surveys, a development that would have seemed unthinkable just 18 months ago.
Historic Local Election Projections
Polling expert Steve Fisher has predicted that Reform UK could win as many as 2,260 council seats in the May local elections in England -- a figure that would surpass even Tony Blair's Labour gains in 1995. Labour, by contrast, is projected to lose nearly 2,000 councillors in what could be its worst local election defeat on record.
Reform's target seats include councils in Sunderland, South Tyneside, Norfolk, Suffolk, and suburban London boroughs such as Bexley, Bromley, and Havering. Essex has been identified as a major prize, with the party confident of taking control of multiple county councils.
Starmer Under Pressure
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has urged his ministers to target Reform UK directly, accusing the party of feeding on grievance, decline and division. Despite this, Labour's poll numbers have continued to slide, with Starmer's net approval rating falling to -46% by late 2025 -- making him one of the least popular prime ministers in decades.
Starmer has remained defiant, warning that removing him as leader would lead to utter chaos and potentially open the door to a far-right government. The Prime Minister has also acknowledged strategic errors, including the appointment of Peter Mandelson as US ambassador, and has toughened the government's asylum policy in an attempt to counter Reform's anti-immigration messaging.
Reform's Vulnerabilities
Despite the surge, analysts have pointed to significant vulnerabilities for Reform. Critics describe the party as a one-man show heavily dependent on Farage's personal brand, with a revolving door of senior staff and limited policy depth beyond immigration. The party's association with figures such as Steve Bannon and its Elon Musk chainsaw approach to public spending are seen as potential liabilities with the broader electorate.
Tactical voting could also prove decisive. Analysts suggest that voters from multiple parties may unite to block Reform candidates in key marginals, potentially preventing an outright majority even if the party tops the national vote share.
What's Next
With local elections in England approaching and parliamentary elections in Scotland and Wales also on the horizon, the coming weeks will be a critical test of whether Reform's polling surge translates into real electoral power -- or whether the established parties can mount a coordinated defence. For Labour, the results will be a defining moment for Starmer's leadership.
For more on the latest polling, see BBC News.
