MAGA Movement Shows Deep Anxiety Over Iran War at CPAC as Trump Skips Event
The 2026 Conservative Political Action Conference in Dallas, Texas, was marked by two significant developments: the first absence of President Donald Trump in a decade, and a deepening ideological rift within the MAGA movement over the ongoing war with Iran — a conflict that has exposed a stark and potentially damaging divide between "America First" isolationists and pro-interventionist hawks.
Background
CPAC has long served as the annual gathering point for the American conservative movement, and Trump's consistent presence over the past decade has made it a de facto loyalty test for the Republican base. His decision to skip the 2026 conference — the first such absence in ten years — came at a particularly fraught moment in his second term, defined by historically low approval ratings and public division over the war in Iran. Polling data from the time indicated Trump's approval rating had fallen to 36%, with even lower numbers on his handling of the economy (29%) and the cost of living (25%).
The war itself, which began on 28 February 2026 with US and Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, has become the defining foreign policy controversy of Trump's second term. It has pitted two factions of the conservative movement against each other: those who view military intervention as a necessary assertion of American strength, and those who see it as a betrayal of Trump's "America First" promise to avoid foreign entanglements. That tension was on full display in Dallas.
Trump's absence, along with that of Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, altered the conference's atmosphere considerably. The event featured fewer high-profile administration officials and gave prominence to emerging voices and international right-wing populist leaders. CPAC Chairman Matt Schlapp insisted that Trump's policy agenda remained "the glue holding them together," but the empty chair at the top of the movement was hard to ignore.
Key Developments
The speaker lineup at CPAC 2026 directly reflected the internal debate over the Iran war. Reza Pahlavi, the son of Iran's last shah, was a headline speaker who received a standing ovation for his call for regime change, urging America to "stay the course" and pledging to "make Iran great again." Christian evangelist Franklin Graham framed the conflict in religious terms, declaring to cheers from the audience: "We are at war with the Islamic Republic of Iran."
But the isolationist wing made itself heard too. Former Congressman Matt Gaetz was one of the few speakers to openly criticise the conflict from the main stage, warning: "A ground invasion of Iran will make our country poorer and less safe." Outside the conference halls, former Trump strategist Steve Bannon echoed this scepticism on his podcast, predicting the military action would "get really, really, really ugly" and criticising war proponents who lack "skin in the game." Among attendees, a vocal segment of younger conservatives and veterans expressed a sense of betrayal — one 30-year-old Army and Marine Corps veteran told reporters he felt "betrayed" by Trump's engagement in a new war after campaigning on a promise to end them.
Why It Matters
The divisions on display at CPAC 2026 matter because they reveal a MAGA coalition under genuine strain. The Iran war has brought the long-simmering tension between isolationism and interventionism to a boiling point, creating what analysts are calling an "elite split" among conservative thought leaders and alienating a key segment of Trump's broader 2024 coalition. Figures like Tucker Carlson and Megyn Kelly have become vocal critics of the war, with Candace Owens going so far as to call for Trump's removal via the 25th Amendment — prompting Trump to publicly dismiss them as "stupid people" and "losers" who are not truly "MAGA."
While a large majority of Republicans — nearly 80% — still approve of Trump's handling of the war, that support fractures significantly among younger conservatives and independents. With midterm elections on the horizon, the durability of the MAGA coalition and its ability to maintain electoral discipline on a deeply divisive foreign policy question will be one of the defining political stories of the coming months.
Local Impact
For UK observers, the divisions within the American right over the Iran war carry significant implications for transatlantic relations and British foreign policy. The UK government has been navigating a delicate balance — supporting US strategic objectives while maintaining its own diplomatic relationships in the region and managing domestic pressure over the economic consequences of the conflict. A MAGA movement increasingly sceptical of the war could, over time, shift US policy in ways that affect the UK's own strategic calculations. Westminster is watching developments in Dallas and Washington with close attention.
What's Next
The 2028 presidential straw poll at CPAC showed Vice President JD Vance leading with 53% support, suggesting that while activists are looking to the future, the ideological battles of the present will define the movement for years to come. The Iran war remains the central fault line, and how Trump navigates the competing demands of his hawkish and isolationist wings — while managing the economic consequences of a conflict that is already hitting American households hard — will determine whether the MAGA coalition holds together or fractures in ways that reshape American politics.
Sources: NPR | CNN Politics | The New York Times
