Trump Unlikely to Accept Offer as Russia's Putin Publicly Backs Tehran and Questions Emerge Over New Supreme Leader
Iran has submitted a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz — the critical waterway through which approximately 20% of the world's oil passes — in exchange for postponing negotiations on its nuclear programme, as the war involving Iran, the United States, and Israel entered its 59th day on Monday with no clear path to resolution and global energy markets remaining under severe pressure.
Background
The Iran war, which began in late February 2026, has its roots in years of escalating tension over Tehran's nuclear programme and its support for proxy forces across the Middle East. The immediate trigger was a series of Iranian missile strikes on US bases in the region, which prompted a US-led military response that has since drawn in Israel and, to varying degrees, several other regional actors. The conflict has had immediate and severe consequences for global energy markets: oil prices have surged above $100 per barrel as disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has tightened supply, driving up fuel costs across the world and contributing to inflationary pressures in the UK and Ireland.
The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world's most strategically important waterways, connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. Iran has long threatened to close the strait in the event of military conflict, and the current disruption — whether through direct Iranian action or the threat of it — has been sufficient to significantly reduce the volume of oil and gas transiting the waterway. The economic consequences have been felt most acutely in Europe, which is more dependent on Middle Eastern energy than the United States.
Iran's political situation has been complicated by the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in the early weeks of the conflict and the succession of his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, who has been largely out of public sight since taking power. Questions about his well-being and authority have added uncertainty to an already complex diplomatic situation.
Key Developments
Iran's new proposal, submitted to US interlocutors, offers to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for postponing negotiations on its nuclear programme to a later date. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the proposal as "better than what we thought they were going to submit" but made clear that any future deal must definitively prevent Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons, calling the nuclear programme "the core issue." President Trump is reported to be unlikely to accept the offer, with sources familiar with the matter indicating he conveyed his scepticism during a meeting with national security officials.
Russian President Vladimir Putin publicly expressed support for Iran, meeting with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in St Petersburg and stating that Russia "will do everything that meets your interests and the interests of all peoples in the region in order to ensure that this peace is achieved as quickly as possible." Putin also confirmed receiving a message from the new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei. Russia's UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, defended Iran's right to limit navigation in the Strait of Hormuz during wartime.
On the Israeli front, Secretary Rubio acknowledged Israeli strikes on Lebanon during the fragile ceasefire, urging Israel to ensure its responses are "proportional and targeted." Satellite imagery reportedly shows hundreds of buildings in southern Lebanon either flattened or rendered uninhabitable, with demolitions continuing after the April 16 ceasefire.
Why It Matters
The Iran war is the most significant geopolitical crisis since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, and its consequences are being felt across the globe. For the UK and Ireland, the most immediate impact has been on energy prices — the 8.7% year-on-year increase in UK fuel prices in March is directly attributable to the conflict. The war has also strained the UK-US relationship, with London and Washington taking divergent positions on the pace of diplomacy, and has complicated the government's fiscal position by reducing the UK's fiscal buffer by up to £16 billion.
The proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for delayed nuclear talks is significant because it suggests Iran is feeling genuine economic pressure from the conflict — but also that it is not yet ready to make the concessions on its nuclear programme that the US regards as essential. This is a familiar pattern in Iranian diplomacy: offering partial concessions to relieve immediate pressure while preserving the core of its strategic position. Whether Trump's team can navigate this dynamic without either accepting a bad deal or allowing the conflict to escalate further is the central question of the coming weeks.
Local Impact
The Iran war's impact on UK and Irish households has been direct and painful. Fuel prices have risen sharply, adding to the cost of living pressures already being felt from post-pandemic inflation. In Northern Ireland, where many households are dependent on home heating oil rather than gas, the impact of higher oil prices has been particularly severe. In the Republic of Ireland, the fuel protests that began on 7 April — triggered by soaring prices — led to a government confidence vote on 14 April, illustrating the political as well as economic consequences of the conflict. For businesses across the UK and Ireland that depend on road transport, the higher fuel costs are squeezing margins and contributing to the insolvency wave documented elsewhere this week.
What's Next
The US response to Iran's Strait of Hormuz proposal is expected in the coming days. Watch for any statement from Secretary Rubio or the White House on whether the offer will be accepted, rejected, or used as the basis for further negotiation. King Charles's state visit to Washington — which includes a state banquet on Tuesday evening — may provide an opportunity for informal UK-US discussions on the Iran situation. The next UN Security Council meeting on the conflict is scheduled for later this week, where Russia's position will be closely watched.
