Labour Faces Historic Losses as May Local Elections Loom — Reform UK Set for Major Gains
With just eleven days until the 7 May 2026 local elections, projections paint a dire picture for Labour, with the party forecast to suffer its worst local election performance on record as Reform UK and the Green Party surge across England, Wales, and Scotland.
Background
The May 2026 local elections will see 136 English councils go to the polls, along with Senedd elections in Wales and Holyrood elections in Scotland. Labour is defending seats won in 2022 when the party polled 35% nationally — but current polling puts their support at just 18–19%, signalling a dramatic reversal of fortunes.
Key Developments
Political analyst Professor Stephen Fisher of Oxford University estimates Labour could lose as many as 1,900 councillors — representing 74% of the seats they currently hold that are up for re-election. Reform UK, which had a near-zero local presence in 2022 but now polls around 26–27% nationally, is projected to gain over 2,200 councillors and take control of county councils in Essex, Norfolk, and Suffolk.
The Green Party, polling between 12–16%, is forecast to gain 450 councillors and could challenge Labour in inner London boroughs including Hackney, Lewisham, and Lambeth, as well as cities like Norwich and Sheffield. The Conservatives, squeezed by Reform UK in Leave-voting areas and the Liberal Democrats in the south, are projected to lose over 1,000 councillors.
In Wales, Labour could fall to third place in the Senedd, with Reform UK and Plaid Cymru neck-and-neck for first. In Scotland, the SNP is forecast to retain power while Reform UK is projected to become the second-largest party.
Why It Matters
The elections come at a particularly turbulent moment for Keir Starmer, whose leadership is already under pressure from the Mandelson vetting scandal. A catastrophic result on 7 May could accelerate calls for a leadership challenge within Labour. The fragmentation of the vote across five major parties under first-past-the-post is making outright majorities harder to achieve, with 71 councils projected to result in No Overall Control.
What's Next
Polling day is Thursday, 7 May 2026. Results are expected to begin coming in overnight and through Friday 8 May. Political commentators will be watching closely for any sign of a formal Labour leadership challenge in the days that follow.
