First-Time Buyers Remain Priced Out of Irish Market Despite Cooling Growth, SCSI Report Finds
A new report from the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland has found that first-time buyers with two incomes remain priced out of the Irish housing market in key commuter counties, despite signs that price growth is moderating to a more sustainable three to five per cent annually. The SCSI's Annual Residential Market Monitor Review and Outlook 2026 reveals that a benchmark couple with a combined gross income of €112,000 still faces a funding shortfall of €24,000 in County Wicklow, and that government scheme ceilings are increasingly misaligned with market values in high-demand areas.
Background
Ireland's housing crisis has been one of the defining political and social issues of the past decade. The combination of a severe shortage of supply, strong demand driven by population growth and economic immigration, and the legacy of the post-crash period — during which construction activity collapsed and has only slowly recovered — has created a market in which affordability is a serious and persistent problem for a large proportion of the population.
The government has introduced a range of measures to support first-time buyers, including the Help-to-Buy scheme, which offers a tax rebate of up to €30,000 or 10 per cent of the purchase price for new-build homes, and the First Home Scheme, a shared equity initiative that allows the State to take an equity stake of up to 30 per cent in a home. These schemes have helped some buyers to enter the market, but the SCSI's research suggests that they are not sufficient to address the scale of the affordability challenge, particularly in the commuter counties around Dublin where demand is strongest.
The housing market in 2026 is showing some signs of moderation compared to the double-digit growth rates of previous years. The SCSI expects national property prices to rise by an average of four per cent in 2026, a pace that is more sustainable than the growth seen in 2023 and 2024. But moderation in the rate of price growth is not the same as affordability, and for the many households that are still trying to save a deposit while paying high rents, the market remains deeply challenging.
Key Developments
The SCSI's 2026 report includes a detailed affordability analysis for a benchmark first-time buyer couple with a combined gross income of €112,000. The findings reveal significant regional disparities in the ability to purchase a three-bedroom semi-detached home. In County Wicklow, the couple faces a funding shortfall of €24,000, while in Counties Kildare and Meath, the shortfall is approximately €2,000. Two-bedroom terraced homes are identified as the most financially accessible property type for first-time buyers in most areas.
The report notes that 84 per cent of agents consider current property prices to be "expensive" or "very expensive," while 83 per cent believe that price growth is either levelling off or has already peaked. The primary driver of continued price growth remains the persistent lack of housing supply, with 72 per cent of agents reporting low stock levels in late 2025.
The SCSI has called for more regular reviews of the government scheme ceilings — specifically the €500,000 cap for the First Home Scheme and Help to Buy — which are increasingly misaligned with market values in high-demand areas. The organisation has also called for a pause on new rental reforms to allow for further stakeholder consultation, noting that 86 per cent of agents believe the extension of Rent Pressure Zones will encourage more landlords to exit the market.
Housing completions are expected to reach approximately 35,000 units in 2026, the highest level in over a decade, but this still falls short of the estimated annual requirement of 45,000 to 50,000 homes. The shortage of second-hand listings — approximately 13,000 nationwide — continues to intensify competition, often leading to properties selling above their asking prices.
Why It Matters
The SCSI report matters because it provides a rigorous, evidence-based assessment of the state of the Irish housing market at a time when political debate about housing is often dominated by anecdote and ideology. The finding that a couple with a combined income of €112,000 — well above the national average — still faces a funding shortfall in County Wicklow is a powerful illustration of the scale of the affordability problem. It is not a problem that can be solved by tweaking scheme ceilings or adjusting planning regulations at the margins. It requires a sustained, large-scale increase in housing supply, and that in turn requires a level of political commitment and public investment that has not yet been demonstrated. The government's housing targets are ambitious, but the gap between targets and delivery has been a persistent feature of Irish housing policy for many years, and the SCSI's report is a reminder that the consequences of that gap are being felt by real people every day.
Local Impact
The impact of the housing affordability crisis is felt most acutely in the greater Dublin area and the commuter counties of Wicklow, Kildare, Meath, and Louth, where demand is strongest and supply is most constrained. For young professionals working in Dublin who are trying to buy their first home, the choice is often between a long commute from an affordable area or an unaffordable property closer to the city. The expansion of the DART and the planned MetroLink are intended to make the commuter counties more accessible, but those projects are years away from completion. In the meantime, the rental market in Dublin — where average rents have reached record levels — continues to make it extremely difficult for first-time buyers to save the deposit they need to enter the market. The HSE's community health services in the greater Dublin area are also reporting an increase in stress-related presentations linked to housing insecurity, a reminder that the housing crisis has consequences that extend well beyond the property market itself.
What's Next
The government is expected to respond to the SCSI report in the coming weeks, with the Minister for Housing likely to outline any planned adjustments to the Help-to-Buy and First Home Scheme ceilings. The Housing Commission's recommendations, which were published earlier in 2026, are also expected to inform the government's housing strategy for the remainder of the year. The SCSI will publish a mid-year update to its residential market monitor in the autumn, which will provide a more current assessment of market conditions and affordability. The Dáil is in summer recess until September, but housing is expected to be a central issue when it returns.
