Reform UK Surges Ahead as May Local Elections Loom — Labour Fights to Hold Key Councils
With just over two weeks to go until the 7 May local elections, Reform UK is riding high in the polls and targeting Labour strongholds across England, Scotland, and Wales — as the governing party battles a deepening political crisis over the Mandelson vetting scandal.
Background
The 2026 United Kingdom local elections will see 5,014 council seats contested across 136 English local authorities, alongside six directly elected mayoral contests and devolved elections to the Senedd in Wales and the Scottish Parliament. Reform UK, which took outright control of 10 English local authorities in the May 2025 elections, is now leading national opinion polls and has set its sights on further gains.
Key Developments
Reform UK has been campaigning aggressively in Labour-held areas, with party chairman Zia Yusuf promising lower council tax increases and better value for money. The party launched a so-called "DOGE" unit in its existing councils, claiming to have identified hundreds of millions in savings by halting planned office moves and net-zero schemes — though critics from the Institute for Government have labelled these claims "bluster" and "outlandish promises."
In Greater Manchester, Labour Mayor Andy Burnham has urged voters to back Labour councillors, warning that a Reform UK surge could jeopardise major regeneration projects. Labour controls seven of Greater Manchester's ten councils and leads two others as minority administrations. The party's vulnerability was underscored by the Gorton and Denton by-election in February 2026, where Labour came third behind the Green Party and Reform UK.
The Conservative Party, led by Kemi Badenoch, has seen a string of high-profile defections to Reform UK in recent months, including former Chancellor Nadhim Zahawi and former Home Secretary Suella Braverman. The Liberal Democrats, meanwhile, are targeting suburban and rural seats where they made gains in 2025.
Why It Matters
The elections arrive at a particularly turbulent moment for Keir Starmer's government, which is already reeling from the Mandelson security vetting scandal. A poor showing for Labour on 7 May could intensify internal pressure on the Prime Minister and embolden calls for a change in direction. Nationalist parties are also expected to make gains in Scotland and Wales, with some analysts predicting a "seismic" outcome that could simultaneously see Sinn Féin, the SNP, and Plaid Cymru controlling devolved governments — a scenario that would amplify calls for Scottish independence and Irish reunification.
What's Next
Campaigning will intensify over the coming fortnight, with all major parties holding rallies and canvassing events across the country. The results on 7 May will be seen as a crucial mid-term verdict on Starmer's Labour government and a bellwether for the next general election.
Sources: The Times; BBC News; Wikipedia — 2026 UK Local Elections
