Northern Ireland on Track to Surpass One Million Jobs by 2032, Ulster University Report Finds
Northern Ireland's economy is set to surpass one million workforce jobs by 2032 and is expected to continue outperforming the wider UK average for growth over the next five years, according to the Ulster University Economic Policy Centre's July 2026 Economic Outlook. The region recorded the fastest annual growth in workforce jobs of any UK region between the first quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026, a performance that has prompted the UUEPC to upgrade its growth forecast to 1.6% in gross value added terms for both 2026 and 2027.
Background
The Ulster University Economic Policy Centre has been tracking Northern Ireland's economic performance for more than two decades, providing the most authoritative independent assessment of the region's labour market, output, and sectoral trends. Its quarterly and annual outlooks are closely watched by Stormont departments, business organisations, and trade unions as a benchmark for policy planning.
Northern Ireland's economic trajectory has been a source of cautious optimism in recent years, even as the region has navigated the twin disruptions of Brexit and the post-pandemic adjustment. The Windsor Framework, which resolved the most acute trade frictions created by the UK's departure from the EU, has provided a degree of stability that has allowed businesses to plan with greater confidence. The region's dual-market access — to both the UK and EU single markets — has been cited by Invest NI as a competitive advantage in attracting foreign direct investment, particularly from US companies seeking a foothold in both markets.
The one-million-jobs milestone carries symbolic as well as economic significance. Northern Ireland's workforce has grown substantially since the peace process transformed the region's economic prospects in the late 1990s, but the journey from a conflict-scarred economy with high unemployment to a region approaching full employment has been neither linear nor uniform. Significant pockets of deprivation persist, particularly in north and west Belfast, parts of Derry, and rural areas of Fermanagh and Tyrone.
Key Developments
The UUEPC's July 2026 report identifies several drivers of Northern Ireland's outperformance. The public sector — particularly health and education — has continued to expand, acting as a stabilising force in the labour market even as private sector employment has fluctuated. Private services, including wholesale, retail, and professional services, have demonstrated growth that contrasts with structural decline in the same sectors across much of Great Britain.
Construction entered 2026 with strong momentum, bolstered by major infrastructure investments and the rollout of City and Growth Deal projects across Belfast, Derry-Londonderry, and the Mid South West region. The report projects GVA growth of 1.6% in 2026 and 2027, rising to 1.7% by 2028 — comfortably ahead of the UK-wide forecast of 1% for 2026.
The report also flags significant structural challenges that must be addressed if the positive trajectory is to be sustained. Productivity growth remains below the UK average, skills shortages are acute in several key sectors, and demographic change — an ageing population and a declining cohort of young workers — will place increasing pressure on health, social care, and education services over the coming decade.
Why It Matters
The one-million-jobs projection matters because it represents a concrete, measurable target against which Northern Ireland's economic performance can be assessed. For too long, the region's economic narrative has been dominated by what it lacks — investment, productivity, connectivity — rather than what it has achieved. The UUEPC's findings provide a basis for a more confident economic story, one grounded in data rather than aspiration.
The outperformance relative to the UK average is particularly significant given the fiscal constraints under which Stormont operates. Northern Ireland's block grant from Westminster has been under sustained pressure, and the Executive has faced difficult choices about public spending priorities. The fact that the economy is growing faster than the UK average despite those constraints suggests that the underlying fundamentals — a skilled workforce, dual-market access, and a growing private sector — are genuinely robust. Unlike the Republic, which has benefited from a surge in corporation tax receipts from multinationals, Northern Ireland's growth is driven primarily by domestic employment — a more sustainable, if less spectacular, foundation.
Local Impact
The growth is not evenly distributed. Belfast city centre has seen the most visible economic transformation, with major office developments, hotel openings, and retail investment reshaping the urban landscape. The Titanic Quarter, the Cathedral Quarter, and the emerging Tribeca development in north Belfast are all benefiting from sustained investment. Outside the capital, Derry-Londonderry's City Deal projects are beginning to deliver tangible results, while the Mid South West Growth Deal is bringing investment to Omagh, Enniskillen, and the surrounding rural economy. The challenge for policymakers is to ensure that the benefits of growth reach communities in north and west Belfast, parts of Armagh, and rural Fermanagh and Tyrone that have historically been left behind.
What's Next
The UUEPC will publish its next quarterly update in October 2026, which will incorporate the latest labour market data and assess whether the growth trajectory has been maintained through the summer. The Department for the Economy at Stormont is expected to use the report's findings to inform its economic strategy review, which is due for publication before the end of the year. Invest NI will also draw on the data in its pitch to potential investors at international trade events in the autumn.
