Northern Ireland Pupils' Maths and Reading Scores Fall Sharply Over Decade as PISA Study Signals Need for Urgent Reform
Northern Ireland's 15-year-old pupils have recorded a significant decline in reading and mathematics performance over the past decade, according to the 2025 Programme for International Student Assessment published on Tuesday, with Education Minister Paul Givan describing the results as a "wake-up call" and warning that relative success by international standards should not be confused with sufficient progress — particularly as the proportion of pupils falling below the baseline level of competence in mathematics has risen from 19% in 2015 to 30% in 2025.
Background
The Programme for International Student Assessment is the OECD's flagship international education survey, assessing 15-year-olds across 91 countries in reading, mathematics, and science every three years. Northern Ireland participates as a separate jurisdiction within the United Kingdom, allowing for direct comparison with England, Scotland, and Wales, as well as with the Republic of Ireland and other international systems. The 2025 cycle assessed approximately 3,500 pupils across 104 schools in Northern Ireland between September and October of last year.
Northern Ireland has historically performed above the OECD average in all three PISA domains, and the 2025 results maintain that position. However, the trend data — which allows comparison with results going back to 2015 — tells a more concerning story. Across reading, mathematics, and science, Northern Ireland's scores have declined from their 2015 peaks, and the region has been outperformed by both England and the Republic of Ireland across all three domains. The gap with the Republic is particularly striking in reading, where Irish students ranked first in the EU while Northern Ireland's performance has moved in the opposite direction.
The results arrive at a moment of significant pressure on Northern Ireland's education system. Schools are managing growing concerns about pupil well-being, rising rates of absenteeism, and the challenge of meeting increasing demands with budgets that have been squeezed by the Executive's ongoing financial difficulties. The Education Authority has faced criticism for its management of school funding, and the Department of Education's TransformED reform programme — designed to drive higher standards and address persistent attainment gaps — is still in its early stages.
Key Developments
The specific score data from the 2025 PISA study makes for sobering reading. In mathematics, Northern Ireland's average score was 473, down from 492 in 2018 and significantly below the 2015 figure. In reading, the average was 482, compared to 497 in 2015 and 501 in 2018. Science scores, at 492, have remained relatively stable but sit below the 2015 result of 500.
The most alarming finding concerns the proportion of pupils falling below Level 2 proficiency — the internationally recognised baseline required for effective participation in life and learning. In mathematics, 30% of Northern Ireland pupils are now performing below this threshold, up from 19% in 2015. In reading, 23% fall below the baseline, up from 19% in 2018. In science, the figure has risen to 22% from 19.5% in 2018.
Minister Givan said the results "underscore the necessity" of the TransformED reform programme and committed to a close examination of the findings to strengthen numeracy and literacy outcomes. Dr Graham Gault of NAHT Northern Ireland noted that while the results remain generally strong by international standards, they reflect systemic pressures including severe budget constraints and the challenges of meeting increasing demands with limited resources.
Why It Matters
The decline in Northern Ireland's PISA scores matters for reasons that go beyond league table positioning. The rise in the proportion of pupils performing below the Level 2 baseline is particularly significant, because this threshold represents the minimum level of competence that young people need to participate effectively in adult life — to read a contract, understand a payslip, or navigate the increasingly complex information environment of the modern world. A system in which 30% of 15-year-olds cannot meet this standard in mathematics is a system that is failing a significant proportion of its young people. The contrast with the Republic of Ireland — where the same PISA cycle produced first-place EU rankings in reading — is instructive. Both jurisdictions share a common cultural and linguistic heritage, similar demographic profiles, and comparable levels of economic development. The divergence in educational outcomes suggests that policy choices, funding decisions, and institutional culture matter enormously, and that Northern Ireland has ground to make up.
Local Impact
The results will be felt most acutely in schools serving disadvantaged communities, where the link between socioeconomic status and educational attainment is strongest. Pupils eligible for free school meals — a widely used proxy for disadvantage — consistently achieve lower PISA scores than their peers, and the widening of the attainment gap over the past decade suggests that existing support measures have not been sufficient to counteract the effects of poverty on educational outcomes. Schools in areas such as North Belfast, West Belfast, Derry's Bogside and Fountain areas, and parts of Newry and Armagh will be particularly affected. The Education Authority's area learning communities and the Department of Education's DENI-funded literacy and numeracy programmes will need to be significantly strengthened if the trend is to be reversed.
What's Next
Minister Givan has committed to publishing a detailed response to the PISA findings within the next month, setting out specific actions the Department of Education will take to address the decline in attainment. The Education Committee at Stormont is expected to hold a dedicated session on the results, taking evidence from the Department, the Education Authority, school principals, and teacher unions. The findings will also inform the next phase of the TransformED reform programme, which is due to be updated before the end of the current Assembly mandate in March 2027.
